The Sharp's Treatise — Brandon Jundt | The definitive book on modern +EV sports betting

The Thesis · Why this book, why now

The legalization wave created millions of bettors. Almost none of them have a book worth reading.

Since the 2018 PASPA repeal, ~38 US states have gone live. The audience exploded. The literature didn't. The category's commercial ceiling has been proven — The Logic of Sports Betting moved 300,000+ copies — but nobody has shipped the rigorous, comprehensive treatise the serious bettor actually needs.

"The edge isn't a secret pick. It's a system — expected value, market structure, and bankroll discipline, applied relentlessly. This book is that system, written down."

What's on the shelf today

Pick-selling "systems" with no math
Dated pre-legalization strategy
Poker-era anecdotes, thin on modern markets
Nothing on devigging, CLV, or prediction markets
Written to entertain, not to make you a winner

What this treatise delivers

First-principles EV, variance & Kelly — with real simulations
Modern market structure: sharp vs. rec books, hold%, limits
Devig methods, closing-line value, originating your own numbers
Prediction markets, arbitrage, middles, key-number theory
The path from recreational bettor to professional

The Math · Interactive, sourced, real

Don't take our word for it. Run the numbers yourself.

These are live, interactive versions of the actual simulations and math from the book. No faked curves — every chart runs the real formula. Color has meaning: green = +EV / value, red = the vig / book's edge.

Variance Simulator

Kelly Growth Curve

Parlay Leverage

Hold % by Book

Key-Number Value

The Variance Simulator

Book Ch. 6 · G1–G6

Same skill, wildly different outcomes. A profitable bettor can lose for months. Move the sliders and watch 20 identical-edge bankrolls scatter — this is why bankroll discipline, not "picks," separates pros from tourists.

Edge / EV: 5%

Bet size (% bankroll): 1%

Odds

Bets

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Best path end

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Worst path end

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Median end

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% paths underwater

Source: 20 Monte Carlo simulations, starting bankroll 100 units, run live in your browser. Mirrors book Ch. 6 figures G1–G6.

The Kelly Growth Curve

Book Ch. 12 · Bankroll

There's a peak — and a cliff. Bet the Kelly fraction and your bankroll compounds optimally. Over-bet past it and expected growth collapses into ruin. Most bettors have no idea where the peak is.

Your edge: 5%

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Kelly-optimal bet %

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Over-bet ruin zone

Source: log-growth rate g(f) = p·ln(1+bf) + q·ln(1−f), plotted live. Book Ch. 12.

Parlay Leverage — where the vig hides

Book Ch. 13

A 3-leg parlay isn't one bet — it's your stake rolled forward and taxed at every step. Each leg compounds the book's hold. This waterfall shows the true fair payout vs. what the book actually pays you.

Legs: 3

Odds per leg

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Fair payout ($100)

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Book pays ($100)

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Total hold

Source: fair payout = product of decimal fair odds (vig-removed); book payout = product of posted decimal odds. Book Ch. 13.

Hold % — not all books are equal

Book Ch. 2

The "hold" is the book's built-in edge. Sharp books survive on 2–3%; recreational books charge you 5–7%+. Betting into a high-hold book is like trading through a broker with a 6% commission — you lose before you're wrong.

Source: representative two-way hold ranges by book archetype (sharp / hybrid / recreational). Illustrative of category structure, Book Ch. 2. Exact per-book hold varies by market & date.

Key-Number Value (NFL)

Book Ch. 17

Not all half-points are equal. Because NFL games land on 3 and 7 far more often than other margins, buying +3 → +3.5 is worth vastly more than +5 → +5.5. Knowing the key numbers is free money most bettors leave on the table.

Source: NFL margin-of-victory frequency distribution (spikes at 3 & 7). Illustrative of key-number theory, Book Ch. 17.

The Book · Five parts, forty-one chapters

A complete arc — from thinking like a pro to becoming one.

PART I

Thinking Like a Pro

Expected value, variance, devigging, and the mental models that separate winners from the crowd.

PART II

Market Aware

How lines are made and moved, sharp vs. recreational books, hold, limits, and closing-line value.

PART III

Winning Without Predicting

Arbitrage, middles, promos, key numbers, prediction markets — edges that don't require a crystal ball.

PART IV

Originating & Bottom-Up

Building your own numbers: models, simulations, and the tooling landscape from Benter to today.

PART V

Becoming a Professional

Bankroll at scale, staying on, syndicate structure, and the discipline of a career edge.

The +EV operating
system for modern
sports betting.